What happened (El Niño outlook and forecast probability)
Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Science & Technology and Earth Sciences, Dr. Jitendra Singh, said the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) assesses that El Niño conditions—developed during May 2026—are likely to persist from June 2026 to February 2027. INCOIS projects forecast probabilities ranging between 70% and 90%.
How INCOIS made the assessment (forecast system and inputs)
The INCOIS assessment is based on an indigenous Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML)-based El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction system combined with the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System. The system integrates observed and model data to generate seasonal-to-subseasonal outlooks.
Background: ENSO can influence monsoon, but it is not the only driver
Dr. Jitendra Singh explained that El Niño has historically been associated with weaker Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall over parts of India, but El Niño is not the sole determinant of the monsoon. The monsoon is influenced by multiple interacting climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and regional ocean-atmosphere interactions.