What happened (Lok Sabha reply by the Ministry of Earth Sciences)
The Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences, Dr. Jitendra Singh, stated in a Lok Sabha written reply that the India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, assesses the likely impact of El Niño on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and uses regular forecasting and warning dissemination for preparedness.
IMD’s stated El Niño–monsoon linkages (direction of effect)
IMD’s assessment described a general pattern: during El Niño, the Indian summer monsoon tends to be weaker than normal, and the intensity of the El Niño determines the likely amount of monsoon impact. IMD further stated an inverse relationship is stronger during the later half of the monsoon season, especially for September rainfall.
IMD also shared an El Niño–rainfall historical count (since 1950):
• Since 1950, there have been 16 El Niño years.
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