What happened: IMD’s 2026 Southwest Monsoon forecast updates and rainfall deficit

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) released long-range forecasts for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season and then updated them as El Niño conditions developed. IMD’s forecasts point to below-normal monsoon rainfall and a moisture deficit risk for multiple Indian regions.

Key forecast numbers and timeline (IMD)

IMD’s forecast path for 2026 Southwest Monsoon rainfall is summarized below.

13 April 2026: First Stage Long Range Forecast predicted below-normal seasonal rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA).Updated in Second Stage forecast: IMD revised the seasonal estimate to 90% of the LPA and anticipated El Niño development.June 2026 rainfall outcome: Rainfall recorded at 35% below normal; 70% of districts reported rainfall deficits.July 2026 rainfall outcome: All-India July rainfall was 1% above the LPA due to strong rainfall over Central India, but spatial disparities persisted; 47% of districts faced deficient or large-deficient rainfall.As of 2 August 2026: Cumulative seasonal rainfall stood at 12% below the LPA.

What the El Niño background driver is (as described by IMD)

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