What happened: a predicted lunar collision of a SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage
A SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is expected to collide with the Moon on 5 August 2026 at around 12:05 p.m. IST. SpaceX left the upper stage in an unstable orbit after a January 2025 launch of two lunar-bound satellites.
Independent astronomer Bill Gray used tracking data and updated calculations to estimate the upper stage trajectory. Bill Gray concluded by January 2026 that the upper stage was on a collision course near the lunar Einstein crater.
Bill Gray’s prediction includes uncertainty of:
a few seconds in predicted impact timeroughly tens of kilometres in predicted impact location
Background: why a predictable upper-stage impact can help science
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