The Press Information Bureau explainer assesses claims that India has around 20 million undocumented Bangladeshi migrants. It argues that official census patterns do not support such a large estimate, and it uses census omission rates, birthplace reporting, and migrant-stock data to test the claim.
What the explainer says
The explainer sets out three possible ways undocumented migrants could appear in census data: they may evade the census entirely, they may be counted but falsely report India as their birthplace, or they may report their birthplace truthfully. It then uses census evidence to examine each possibility.
According to the explainer, post-enumeration survey results show that census omission rates are low and stable, including in border regions where the migration claim is strongest. The explainer says that leaves little room for a hidden population on the scale alleged.
The explainer also considers measurement error. It says that if many undocumented migrants had misreported their birthplace, that should have produced unusual inflation in Muslim population growth, especially near the border. The explainer says earlier analysis reportedly found no such pattern.
On migrant-stock data, the explainer says Bangladesh-born residents have declined over time and are concentrated largely in border states. It adds that many of these residents are now elderly and likely belong to historical migration waves around Partition and 1971.
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