India’s sugar sector expects a better 2025-26 marketing season than the previous one, but production is still likely to remain below initial estimates. The estimate from the Indian Sugar and Bio Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) is about 280 lakh tonnes.
The issue matters for UPSC because sugar production affects domestic supply, exports, buffer stocks, and the availability of feedstock for ethanol. India’s sugar economy is also tied to the broader debate on food versus fuel and to the policy objective of raising ethanol blending in transport fuel.
What happened now
According to stakeholders including ISMA, sugar production in the current marketing season October 2025 to September 2026 is expected to be higher than the prior season but lower than earlier estimates. ISMA director general Deepak Ballani estimated production at around 280 lakh tonnes.
Exports during the season have totalled nearly eight lakh tonnes. The government stopped exports last month. The planned committed supply of molasses for ethanol production, equal to about 29 lakh tonnes of sugar, is expected to be maintained.
The season is expected to end with stocks of about 42 lakh tonnes, which is said to be enough to meet domestic demand for about two months.
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