Analyses indicate that scant monsoon rainfall, attributed to El Niño, could raise farm input costs and weaken rural demand.
The southwest monsoon experienced a large rainfall shortfall in June 2026, with many states across northern, southern, eastern, and central India registering deficient or severely deficient rainfall.
With a large share of employment tied to agriculture (as per PLFS 2025), the report argues that deficient rains can reduce farm labour demand and lower farm incomes, thereby pressuring rural consumption.
The article also highlighted rising rural inflation—reported at 4.25% year-on-year as of May 2026—while food-related categories and the consumer food price index were higher.
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